2009 CFB Weekend On Tap: Week 4

Mitch Light predicts the outcome of 10 of the week's biggest games in the Week 4 edition of his 2009 Weekend on Tap column.

Ole Miss (-3) at South Carolina (Thu)

The highly ranked Rebels get their first test of the season against a South Carolina team that is feeling pretty good about itself on offense. After struggling through a 7–3 win over NC State on opening night, the Gamecock offense has scored 75 points over the last two games, a loss at Georgia and a win over Florida Atlantic. South Carolina is getting solid play from quarterback Stephen Garcia and some playmakers are emerging at the skill positions. Ole Miss is loaded with playmakers on offense, and the Rebels will try to take advantage of a banged up South Carolina defense that might not be at full strength Thursday night. Starting defensive tackle Nathan Peppers, who missed the Florida Atlantic game with a knee injury, is questionable, and several other key players sat out practice early in the week. There are a lot of people waiting for Ole Miss, ranked as high as No. 4 in the nation, to tumble, but I believe the Rebs will survive and advance.
Ole Miss 30, South Carolina 24

North Carolina (+2) at Georgia Tech

The Georgia Tech offense rushed for 326 yards last year in Chapel Hill yet lost to the Tar Heels 28–7 thanks in part to three turnovers in the second half. Now, the two Coastal Division contenders meet in Atlanta in what is shaping up to be a very important game for Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are 1–1 in league play, but the option offense has not been operating as smoothly as we have come to expect. Miami held Tech to a net of 95 rushing yards last week, and while the Jackets rolled up over 300 yards on the ground vs. Clemson, they had trouble moving the ball after the first 20 minutes of the game. North Carolina is 3–0 overall, with solid wins at UConn and at home against East Carolina. The Tar Heels limited UConn’s powerful rushing attack to 72 yards on 35 carries two weeks ago. The option presents a different challenge, but UNC has the personnel in its front seven to keep Tech under control.
North Carolina 24, Georgia Tech 17

LSU (-13.5) at Mississippi State

The Tigers are 3–0 and ranked in the top 10 in both the coaches and AP poll (though No. 14 in Athlon Sports’ rankings), but the Tigers haven’t been overly impressive in their three wins. Sure, the victory at Washington looks a lot better after the Huskies beat USC, but the LSU defense has been average and the offense has been a disappointment, ranking 90th in the nation with a 325.7-yard average. This is still a very good team that should remain in the hunt for an SEC West title, but for whatever reason LSU has yet to hit its stride. Mississippi State is riding high after an ugly 15–3 win at Vanderbilt in a game dominated by the Bulldog defense. MSU limited the Dores to 147 total yards, including 33 on the ground. The opposition will present a more difficult challenge this weekend, but the Bulldogs have enough on defense to keep this interesting.
LSU 23, Mississippi State 13

Pittsburgh (+1) at NC State

Pittsburgh is off to a solid 3–0 start with decisive wins over Youngstown State, Buffalo (on the road) and Navy. Last weekend, Pitt limited Navy’s option attack to 129 yards rushing on 46 carries in a 27–14 win at Heinz Field. Bill Stull is playing mistake-free football at quarterback for the Panthers, but this offense is being led by true freshman tailback Dion Lewis, who has rushed for 398 yards and five touchdowns in three games. With Lewis, wideout Jonathan Baldwin and tight end Dorin Dickerson, Pittsburgh has three quality skill guys that can give a defense something to think about. NC State scored three points in its only game vs. an FBS opponent and a total of 110 points in easy wins over FCS foes Murray State and Gardner-Webb. Russell Wilson has been sensational in the Pack’s wins and was rather average in the loss to South Carolina. He will need to be much better than average this weekend.
Pittsburgh 21, North Carolina State 17

TCU (+3) at Clemson

After Utah and BYU both suffered damaging losses last weekend, TCU remains as the only potential BCS buster from the Mountain West Conference. The Frogs already have a decent win on their resume — a 30–14 victory at Virginia — but they can make a big statement this weekend against a very talented Clemson team. The Tigers are 2–1 but could easily be 3–0 after letting one slip away in a Week 2 loss at Georgia Tech. The Tigers have been outstanding on defense (two of the touchdowns they allowed vs. Tech came via special teams) and the offense features several playmakers at the skill positions. If redshirt freshman Kyle Parker can limit his mistakes — he’s got four picks in the last two games — Clemson will remain a player in the ACC Atlantic Division race.
Clemson 24, TCU 20

Miami (-2) at Virginia Tech

If Miami wins this game, no team in the country will be as well-positioned in its conference race this early in the season. The Canes would be 3¬–0 with a home victory over Georgia Tech sandwiched by road wins against Florida State (the favorite in the Atlantic) and Virginia Tech (the favorite in the Coastal). The Hurricanes, of course, first need to take care of business in Blacksburg to find themselves in such a favorable situation. Miami’s last trip to Lane Stadium didn’t go well — a 44–14 loss — but this is a far different Hurricane team. The Canes are playing with a swagger that has been absent for the last several years, and they boast one of the emerging stars in the game in quarterback Jacory Harris. The season is still young, but you can make a strong argument that Harris has been the best quarterback in the nation thus far. Virginia Tech is fresh off a thrilling win over Nebraska, but this team has some issues on offense. Tyrod Taylor continues to struggle in the passing game (12-of-27 vs. the Huskers), and No. 1 tailback Ryan Williams is slowed with a bum ankle.
Miami 27, Virginia Tech 21

Arkansas (+15) at Alabama

It was only one game, but in Arkansas’ 52–41 loss to Georgia, two things we thought were true became apparent — the Hogs are really good on offense and really bad on defense. With Ryan Mallett running the show, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Arkansas leads the SEC in total offense this season, but unless this team improves on defense, the Hogs could struggle to play .500 ball in league play. Alabama, of course, has far loftier goals than to simply break even in the SEC. Ole Miss and LSU will both be factors in the West, but Bama is looking like the class of the division after the first few weeks of the season. The defense, as expected, has been outstanding, and the offense, led by first-time starter Greg McElroy at quarterback, is good enough to win with. The Tide will be tested by the Arkansas offense, but Nick Saban’s club should pick up SEC win No. 1 this Saturday.
Alabama 34, Arkansas 24

California (-6.5) at Oregon

Back in the preseason, this figured to be a battle for second place in the Pac-10. It still might end up being just that, but less than a month into the season, California is looking like a team that can pose a serious threat to USC’s dominance in league play. The Bears have rolled to a 3–0 record, including two wins over BCS conference foes — Maryland (52–13) and at Minnesota (35–21). Oregon has bounced back from the debacle in Boise by beating Purdue and Utah at home, but we still don’t know if this team is good enough to be a factor in the league race. Purdue followed up its 38–36 loss in Eugene with a 28–21 loss at home to Northern Illinois, and Utah had struggled in wins over Utah State and San Jose State before losing to the Ducks. Oregon quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, a preseason first-team All-Pac-10 pick, is completing less than 50 percent of his passes and has yet to throw a touchdown. Those aren’t numbers we are accustomed to seeing with a Chip Kelly offense.
California 31, Oregon 17

Iowa (+10) at Penn State

Iowa has seemingly righted the ship after barely avoiding disaster in a Week 1 win over Northern Iowa. The Hawkeyes have followed up with a dominating win at Iowa State and a solid, 10-point victory over Arizona in Iowa City. With expected starter Jewel Hampton out for the season with a knee injury, Iowa has had several tailbacks step up; Adam Robinson rushed for 101 yards on 18 carries vs. Arizona, and Brandon Wegher topped the 100-yard mark against Iowa State. Penn State will be tested for the first time this season after cruising to easy home wins over Akron, Syracuse and Temple by an average score of 30–7. The Lions have star power at quarterback and tailback, but the new-look offensive line and some relatively untested wideouts must step up against a solid Iowa defense.
Penn State 21, Iowa 17

Texas Tech (+1) at Houston

It’s the biggest home game at Houston since the 1990 season, when John Jenkins had the high-scoring Cougars ranked in the top 10 for the majority of his first season as head coach. The 2009 Coogs, who knocked off Oklahoma State in Week 2, can enter the discussion as a serious BCS buster with another win over a highly regarded Big 12 South foe. The Cougars can move the ball and put points on the board — that is a given — but do they have enough defensively to slow down Texas Tech’s equally explosive attack? In the win over Oklahoma State, the Coogs gave up 240 yards passing and 194 yards on the ground. That’s not awful, especially against an offense like Oklahoma State, but I’m not sure they can give up nearly 450 yards and still beat Texas Tech. I was leaning toward a Houston win but was swayed by the Red Raiders’ strong showing at Texas last weekend.
Texas Tech 40, Houston 30

Last week — 8–2 overall (5–5 against the spread)
Season — 21–9 overall (13–17 against the spread)